Chances for Winning by the Losers

It is a catastrophe that in professional sports, a non-winning record can set the table for a legitimate shot at a world title.

In baseball, it has come close (see 2005 San Diego Padres, 1973 NY Mets). In the NFL, only two .500 teams have made the playoffs since 1991 (1991 NYJ, 2004 STL). In the NBA, however, it has been the norm to find teams with a losing record compete in late April and into May.

Below, a table of the number of .500 win percentage teams, the number of first round games they have won, and the number of series they have gone on to win.

First Round Playoff Stats Last 10 Years
Year Teams at .500 or under Total first round games won Series Won
1996 2 2 0
1997 3 2 0
1998 1 2 0
1999 1 1 0
2000 0 0 0
2001 1 1 0
2002 0 0 0
2003 0 0 0
2004 4 4 0
2005 0 0 0
2006 3
Courtesy: Basketball-Reference.com

Parody just hasn’t existed in the NBA playoffs. These 15 teams in the last 10 years have combined to win just 12 playoff games and have never advanced. In 2004, four teams in the East had the shot and surely one could pull off the upset? Not even the four vs. five could do it.

The last time a team with a losing record entered the playoffs and won a Series was 1988. Then, the Seattle Supersonics boasted a 39-43 record as the 7-seed and made it all the way to the conference finals. They upset both Dallas and Houston, before being swept by Pat Riley’s Los Angeles Lakers.  Since Seattle, a total of 31 teams have entered the playoffs with a record at or below .500. And these teams are 0-31 in playoff series.

So, how good of a chance do Milwaukee (40-42), Chicago (41-41) and Indiana (41-41) have this year?  I’m not going to say “none,” because that’s why they play the game—but let’s delve into these match-ups.

(1) Detroit vs. (8) Milwaukee
One-seeds haven’t lost since 1999. But there was a technicality about that year: First, 1999 was the NBA lockout year, and only 50 regular season games were played. Second, three other teams had the same 33-17 record, but Miami won by a tiebreaker.

In a full 82-game season, it was the 1994 Denver Nuggets who upset the top-seeded Supersonics to advance to the second round.

With Flip Saunders at the helm, we’ve seen the Pistons play looser offensively, but still maintaining impressive defense—leading them to their best regular season record ever (64-18). Don’t worry about the nonsense concerning Ben Wallace not getting along with Flip: This team is focused when it comes to the playoffs.

Having said this, Milwaukee has their hands full. Let’s just look at player vs. player matchups.

Detroit Milwaukee Advantage

PG Billups Ford Detroit
SG Hamilton Redd Detroit
SF Prince Simmons Detroit
PF R. Wallace Bogut Detroit
C B. Wallace Magloire Detroit


Billups will substitute size for speed and can dominate Ford. Hamilton is a workhorse. Prince is undoubtedly better than Simmons. And I’ll just point out the experience from the front court to suffice my argument for the Wallaces.

To make matters worse, the only type of success they had against Detroit was when they played Toni Kukoc at the three. Kukoc is already banged up and will miss the first game, so his health will be a definite factor.
Prediction: Pistons in a sweep

(2) Miami vs. (7) Chicago
Chicago is the hottest of the East’s bottom-3, finishing 12-2 in their final 14 to slip into the show. They had a similar run in the final month of the season last year, winning 15 of their last 19 games. The Bulls’ only win against the Heat in the regular season came back on April 15 when the Heat rested most of their stars.

In the playoffs, it comes down to defense and though the “Baby Bulls” are young, they do buckle down, leading the NBA for the second straight season in defensive field-goal percentage (.426).

Offensively, the Bulls’ patented “drive-and-kick” out game has given opposing teams a hard time. Ben Gordon ranks 2nd in the Eastern Conference, hitting 43.9-percent from 3-point land, and point-guard Kirk Hinrich has shot 42.9-percent from behind the arc in his last five games.

Although the Heat have been locked into the No. 2 spot since basically January, I don’t see them having trouble kicking into high gear. Even when the Bulls shut down Wade in their meetings this year (12.3 ppg), the Heat have found a way to win.

The Bulls have no answer for Shaq, who had 14 points and 6 rebounds in just 20 minutes of action on April 15.
Prediction: Heat in 5

(3) New Jersey vs. (6) Indiana

This might very well be the best shot for a team at the .500 mark in the regular season to win a Series. The Nets came from the weak Atlantic Division that sent no other teams beside themselves to the playoffs. The two teams have similar defensive work ethics, as they are 5th and 6th in points allowed, respectively, in the NBA. The interesting thing about this series is the way they view each other: New Jersey players have said the Pacers are a good transition and look to slow it down, while Indiana players have said the exact same thing about the Nets! Wow, this should be a fun series to watch!

Jermaine O’Neal looks to be healthy into the playoffs, having played 30-plus minutes in his final 11 regular season games, but I don’t foresee him being the difference. The difference must come from the defense side of the ball, in particular, the ability to stop Vince Carter.

Peja Stojakovic and Stephen Jackson must play top-notch to pull the upset.

I have a feeling this series will go seven. The Nets were 29-12 at home, fourth-best home record in the Eastern conference, so that’s the way I lean.
Prediction: Nets in 7

Bet the NBA Playoffs @ WagerWeb.com Sportsbook

http://www.wagerweb.com/sportsbook

Why Online Gambling Is So Popular

In the last few years we have witnessed a revolution in online gambling. Online gambling was once considered a shady operation in which unscrupulous web site operators simply vanished with their customers' money. But things have changed a lot since those days.

As the number of online gamblers has increased, and the amounts of money being wagered have sky-rocketed, like all other ecommerce businesses, online gambling has become an established, credible alternative.

These days, online gambling is so popular and so well organized that no legitimate operator of an online gambling enterprise would risk the future of his business by ripping of his customers. As in any business, the credibility of the operation is critical to its success. This is especially the case with online businesses, where bad news travels very quickly. Every serious online gambling establishment makes it a top priority to deal with customers openly, honestly and fairly.

** The appeal of online gambling

We take for granted that millions of people around the world like to gamble. The reasons and motivations for this are the same whether they gamble in casinos, at physical venues like race tracks or betting shops, or whether they gamble online.

Land-based casinos obviously have some features that you cannot get from an online casino. There is an important social component that is not there with online gambling. The glitz and flash of the casino atmosphere draws many people in and encourages them to get involved. People are drawn in by the excitement and the immediacy of the activity around them.

But setting aside the "entertainment" value of spending a night at the casino, from the wagering perspective, doing your gambling online has far fewer distractions, is more efficient, and lets you more easily focus on the task at hand. It's all gambling all the time. Which means that you can spend hours -- or minutes. You can place your wager and move on to something else.

** Convenience is very important

In other words, online gambling is much more convenient. There is no need to drive an hour or two to spend an entire (expensive) evening eating, drinking, and wagering. When you gamble online you do it from the comfort of your own home. You can do it online at any time -- in the middle of the day, or in the middle of the night.

You can also do it at your own pace. If you are a newbie to the world of online wagering, most sites will have tutorials and demos that show you how things work. They will explain the rules and the terminology. And there is no pressure to play games or place wagers before you know what you are doing.

** Practise and play for free

In fact, with online gambling you can get your feet wet without risking any money at all. There are many games where you can play for free. You can even "test run" many actual games to see how they work and how you might have fared if you had been wagering real money. This is a great way to learn how the system works and to get a feel for what interests you most. Once you feel you have sufficiently mastered the techniques you can open a small account and start placing actual wagers.

** Play a greater variety of games

There is now a multitude of established casinos and wagering websites, and most of them have a wide variety of games to choose from. For instance many have a complete selection of casino games such as Blackjack, Baccarat, Keno, Poker, Roulette and Craps.

But that is only part of the action. There is often a complete Sportsbook betting facility where you can place wagers on virtually any major sporting activity taking place in the world. That includes NFL Football, NCAA Football, NBA Basketball, NCAA Basketball, WNBA Basketball, Major League Baseball, NHL Hockey, PGA Golf, Pro Tennis, Auto Racing, Professional Soccer, Professional Boxing, Olympic Sports, and much more.

** Security issues

Most people are concerned about the safety and security of online commerce, and this is especially the case with online gambling. The fact is that any successful online business must protect its reputation and guard its integrity, or it will be out of business very quickly. This is even more true for online gambling sites.

That is why you should check the legitimacy of any online business you are thinking of dealing with. Search for reviews of the site in online forums where users comment on their experiences with the site. You should also search for special review sites where online gambling sites are reviewed. Bear in mind that these reviews may not be objective and are often out-of-date, but they can serve as a useful guide.

Once you decide on a site, build a relationship gradually with small amounts of money. That will give you a chance to see how the system works, and to see how the online gambling site you have chosen treats its customers.

Key Actions For NBA Pick To Go Up In Toronto For Pacers vs. Raptors Matc...

NBA Playoff Betting: Is the Zigzag Theory Valid or Poppycock?

It’s NBA playoff time and one of the oldest betting theories is the so-called "zigzag" angle. Its critics are as emphatic as the supporters. So who is right? Grandmaster sports handicapper Joe Duffy answers.

About this time two years ago, I watched as on one of the fine  betting sites there was a not-so-subtle back and forth of the validity of the so-called zigzag NBA playoff system. 

The method simply says go with the team off of a loss.  A critic came back after the first week or so gleaming over the fact the technique zagged and sagged more than it zigged.  It lost money. Then as the playoffs went on, the proponent got the last laugh while the cynic wrote articles on other topics telling you he is smarter than everyone else. 

Having been in the industry since the 1980s and having been a supporter of computer systems since prominent statistician Dr. Mike Orkin wrote his Pointspread Analyzer software, where does Center of the Handicapping Universe stand? 

We agree with the theory, but less so the etched-in-stone considerations. First of all, let us give a quick refresher of the difference.  A system can be measured objectively because the parameters are concrete.  The zigzag is an example.  Going with a double digit favorite off a single digit loss would be another hypothetical. 

Of course there can be modest variances depending on when and where a database gathers lines, but over any statistically significant period it does not make a huge difference.

A theory is much like a system but does not have objective parameters. Our theory is the better the team is that the zigzag system favors and the bigger the margin the loss was, the more compelling it is to "go with the team off a loss."  

True one could come up with a system to measure our upgrading of the methodology. An example would be going with a team with a winning percentage of .575 or higher off a loss of eight or more.  The problem is we believe a mental sliding scale combining and most importantly, weighing the two factors works best. It allows for a mixing and matching of the two parameters. 

For example, this year as in most years, it would not apply or would only be weighed slightly if we are talking about the bottom three seeds in each conference off a loss. There is a reason they are called "mismatches". 

No. 4 versus five and the next three rounds of the playoffs (barring huge first round upsets), it is weighed much heavier. Remember we told you the mocker grew conspicuously quieter as the postseason went on.  Now you know why. 

It’s one of those theories that almost make too much sense. During the regular season of every sport we remind you of the Golden Rule to not merely go with the "team that needs it more" if said team is fighting just to make the playoffs. 

We call attention to the fact if a team were proficient at winning "must win" games they would not be playing in must-win games late in the year. 

Conversely, a one through five seed, especially as the playoffs go deeper, has shown the ability to rebound from adversity and respond when their backs are to the wall. 

To the handicapper there is a titanic difference between desperate elite teams and equally desperate inferior teams playing in a crucial contest. It’s like the difference between seeing Jennifer Lopez and Rosie O’Donnell in a string bikini.  

Okay, I don’t follow the analogy myself, but the exemplification of the distinction is infallible. From a handicapping standpoint one can’t measure the success of the zigzag if Phoenix coming off a loss is given the same weight (no pun intended Rosie) as Washington or Golden State following a setback. 

Likewise, the margin of the loss is applicable for at least two obvious reasons.  As we have said many times, nothing affects public perception more than the last game they have seen.  It’s not uncommon for a blowout in the previous game to influence an opening line by 2-3 points and more times than not, the closing line by more. 

Plus, no matter how motivated and well-coached a squad is, it defies human nature to approach a game with as much vengeance off a 22-point win as it is for the team off the huge setback. 

So to friends and foes alike of zigzag, a .700 or better team off a loss is not even close to being the same as the below .520 teams zigging. Nor is mindset the same for a team that lost a game that went down to the wire the same as one that got humiliated on national television.

How are Betting Lines Made

Typically there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (college and pro football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing and golf). Each oddmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses into the process.

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

Commonly, people are under the misconception that point spreads represent the oddmakers prediction of how many points the favorite will win the game by. This is not the case – their intent is not to evenly split the ATS result between teams. But rather their goal is to attract equal betting on both team sides. In other words, they want to create a line that is attractive to people betting one way and also people betting the other way (known as dividing the action).

Dividing the action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the better (called juice).

How the Opening Line Is Made

Opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers which is the sent out to all the sportsbooks. There is of course an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. It starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game that is based on their personal approach. This usually includes having current power ratings on each of the teams.

Power ratings are the oddmakers value of each team and they are used as a guide to calculate the preliminary point spreads on upcoming games. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Non game factor examples that require adjustments to the team’s power ratings are key player injuries and key player trades.

When a games power rating pointspread is figured, the oddsmaker will make changes to that line after considering each teams most recent games and previous games played against the opponent. Adjustments are also made after reading each teams local newspaper to get a feel of what the players and coaches are thinking prior to going into the game.

The oddmakers ultimate goal is to equally divide the betting action, therefore public perception and betting patterns are taken into consideration. Example: the public might have heavy betting interest on a popular college football team. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of -6 then an adjustment up to -6.5 or -7 would be made in response to the public’s expected bias.

The final step in the line making process for all oddmakers is taking one last look to determine if it feels right or not. This is where common sense and past experience with games with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A discussion amongst 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

CRAZIEST Middle School Game You'll Ever See!! | Congress vs Don Estridge...