NBA final to be decided at the charity stripe!

Millions of kids around the world every day pick up a basketball and spend an inordinate amount of time trying to get the round ball in the basket and some become very good at it. Most kids however find shooting to be boring and would rather try all those fancy dribbles and spectacular dunks that bring the crowd to their feet.

Millions of kids around the world every day pick up a basketball and spend an inordinate amount of time trying to get the round ball in the basket and some become very good at it. Most kids however find shooting to be boring and would rather try all those fancy dribbles and spectacular dunks that bring the crowd to their feet.

Game 4 of the NBA finals will be contested in South Beach tonight and on the court will be several millionaires applying their trade. Seven foot giants like O’Neal, Nowitzkie, Mourning and Dampier can slam the ball into the hoop without dropping a bead of sweat, yet put them on the foul line and with the exception of Nowitzkie, the chances of them making even 1 of 2 is not very good!

In Game 1 when the Mavericks won 90-80 the Miami Heat were just 7-19 (36.8) from the foul line and only O’Neal and Wade attempted any shots, while the Mav’s were 20-26 (76.9) and Dirk was 6-6. The margin of victory was 10 points and the Mavericks outscored the Heat 20-7 (13 points) from the line.

In Game 2 the Mav’s won 99-85 and the Heat were 20-32 (62.5) while the Mavericks were 23-28 (.82.1) and O’Neal 1-7 while Dirk was 10-11. Even though the Mavericks only outscored the Heat by 3 at the line, their percentage made was far higher 82% to 62% and it had a huge affect on the outcome.

Game 3 which was the first victory of the series for the Heat saw the Mavericks have for them, an atrocious night at the free throw line. Dallas was 18-26 (69.2) and Dirk was 10-12, but one of those misses cost them a chance at overtime. Meanwhile the Heat shot just 58% but actually outscored the Maverick 20-18 at the line and those 2 points were the margin of victory.

While the experts all try and explain how the Mavericks Eric Dampier is doing a great job controlling O’Neal, the fact of the matter is he was 4-6 from the free throw line, including 2-2 in the dying moments when the game was on the line.

The point spread yesterday opened on most betting shops at Miami -4-3.5 and was quickly hammered down to Miami -2. When a line moves that much 36 hours before a game, it is a fair assumption that the money being wagered is sharp money by professional bettors. As game time nears the public or recreational bettor will get involved and many bet with their heart not their head.

With so many close finishes in this years playoffs, don’t be surprised if this game comes down to the wire again. Just look at who makes the most free throw and that will give you the ultimate winner!

NCAA March Madness

It is the time of year when conference championships are almost upon us and there are several keys that should be looked at when handicapping and filliing out your brackets for the tournaments during March Madness.

How to handicap College Hoops NCAA March Madness Tournament Edition

It is the time of year when conference championships are almost upon us and there are several keys that should be looked at when handicapping the tournaments during March Madness.

Experience pays off:

One has to look at teams that have played in championships to get back to the championship round. In the last five years teams that have won the championship has made it back to the big game 63% of the time. This has to do with being able to handle the pressure of the big game.

Depth:

Depth is a must for the championship tournament as it will always give an edge to a team when it comes to late in the tournament when teams have played several games over several days. Teams that are strong in depth allow players to be fresher longer and eat up precious time as well as fouls at any given time. 

Rebounding:

This one is rather obvious has teams that rebound the ball well get a second chance at missed shots and will often control the tempo of the game for the most part. The teams in conference that have had the rebounding edge has gone to the championship round more often than not.

Free Throws: 

Another obvious one is free throws. Teams that can shoot free throws will win games down the stretch and in conference tournaments they are invaluable. With the basics of picking a winner in the conference tournaments out of the way let’s look at some of the intangibles that will make you money ATS.

Ride the Streak:

Hot teams coming into the tournament are always a play in my book. These teams usually get all the bounces, play the game the hardest and take advantage of teams playing out the string. However a note here is if the team is undefeated in conference play when they enter the tournament I suggest a play against them SU and ATS. 

Stay away from the last team to make the tournament:

The #8 seed is a dangerous go of things in conference tournaments. They have played the #1 seed before (often twice) and so the #1 seed knows exactly what to expect and is not surprised by the play or the temp unlike March Madness when the lower seeds surprise more often. The #8 seed is not a money maker ATS either as they are just 51% ATS in conference tournaments.

Your upsets will be from the middle of the pack:

This makes sense as the teams ranked #4-#6 are often playing opposition with equal talent or close to it. This is where the dog will become more valuable than not and will have an easier path to getting to the conference championship and often cashing as an underdog along the way. 

The conference tournaments to me are very valuable when considering the big dance in March. The reason is simple. When you play close attention to the conference tournaments you are watching teams that will make the Big Dance and you will get insight on how to play them when March Madness starts. For up to date information on March Madness stop by Bang The Book Sports Handicapping Forum at http://www.bangthebook.com

My bet is on Dallas in game 6!

Last week I warned you that the <a href="http://www.sportsbook.com/basketball-betting.htm">NBA Finals</a> would be won at the charity stripe and that comment has been money in the bank.  Especially in game 5 last night, when Dwayne Wade literally won the game with two foul shots in the last 1.9 seconds.

Last week I warned you that the NBA Finals would be won at the charity stripe and that comment has been money in the bank.  Especially in game 5 last night, when Dwayne Wade literally won the game with two foul shots in the last 1.9 seconds.

As of this moment there have been 5 games and let’s take a look at the statistics! Game 1 was won by Dallas and they made 20-26 shots to Miami’s 7 of 19. In game 2 the Mavericks won again and the Mavs won and were 23-28 from the line while Miami was 20-32.

Game 3 was in Miami and the Heat won and were 20-34 while Dallas was 18-26 and in game 4 another Heat win, Miami was 23-36 and Cuban’s boys 21-27. Game 5 saw the Heat win as we mentioned and they were a whopping 32-49 while Dallas was 21-25, in fact Wade himself had as many attempts and makes as Dallas!

These finals are becoming like all the reality shows on television in that they are so removed from reality that it is humorous. The referees are clearly intimidated in the home building and the best proposition bet is that the home team will attempt more free throws. Furthermore the NBA czar David Stern also tilted the outcome in the direction of Miami last night by suspended Jerry Stackhouse for his bump of Shaq.

Now the scene shifts back to the Lone Star State and the Texans are ready for a lynching and Stern may want to watch this game from the comfort of his home. After last nights game billionaire owner Mark Cuban attacked the scorers table and stared down the commissioner, as well as screamed at official Joe DeRosa. Cuban should be looking at a huge penalty, but I’m not sure if Stern has the balls to incite the Dallas rioters any further.

The bottom line is that Dallas is 4 of 5 with the point spread in this series, gets the home court and another double digit is points with the return of Stackhouse. The line had already been established at Mavs -6 and that incidentally is the highest number hung in any game to date. The linemakers realize that Dallas is the better team, are at home and will get to the foul line more.

They need to get some two way action and they will with public money and recreational bettors, who figure another thrilling finish is about to take place. This will not occur!

Have you ever watch an old western movie where the bad guys go into the saloon and grab some innocent dude and tie him to rope hooked up to a horse drawn wagon.  Then they proceed to take this guy for a disturbing and torturous journey.

This is akin to what will transpire in American Airlines West tomorrow as the Mavericks will deliver an old fashion beating and easily cover the spread!

Bob Acton

<a href="http://www.sportsbook.com">Online Sports Betting</a>

To Gamble or not to Gamble; That is the Question

We will never understand, and it’s just that simple.

We will never understand, and it’s just that simple. We will never understand what it’s like to be so competitive and have the adrenaline rush of 50,000 fans screaming your name while you are knocking in the winning run or scoring the winning basket. This is a rush sitting at home and watching television just can’t replace. So, what do athletes do? They gamble. They get involved with sports betting.

The debate is out whether it is ok for athletes to gamble after the recent comments made by John Daly and Charles Barkley. Daly recently came out and said he has lost between an estimated $50 million and $60 million in the last twelve years due to out-of-control gambling. Barkley followed up by saying Wednesday on ESPN that he has lost "probably $10 million" gambling, adding, “It is a problem for me.”

“Do I have a gambling problem? Yeah, I do have a gambling problem, but I don't consider it a problem because I can afford to gamble. It's just a stupid habit that I've got to get under control because it's just not a good thing to be broke after all of these years," Barkley said.

Embedded in this touchy subject are two issues of great importance. When athletes gamble, how much is too much and what is ok for them to gamble on?

I believe there is a fine line between recreational gambling and just utter craziness. In this situation, Daly is crazy, and Barkley is not. I truly believe it’s ok for a former athlete to call up their local sportsbook and place a small-to-medium wager on a ball club if that athlete feels like this bet will satisfy their need for an adrenaline fix. We, as fans, don’t know what it’s like to be in competition everyday on the greatest stage and then have it snapped away just like that. That transition can be brutal and can lead to depression--the reason most of our childhood heroes fall so far from grace. This is also why athletes stay in the game way too long after they should have retired years before they actually do. For Barkley, it is what it is--a habit that needs to be under control. Does he have to stop? Absolutely not.

On the flip side, we have John Daly. It’s one thing for an athlete to gamble a few million if they can afford it. Hey, it’s their money, and they can spend it how they please. We are not their parents or superiors, and let’s stop pretending we are. It’s another thing, however, to end up flat broke and put your family at risk. That is what a loss of $50 million will do. We all know gambling isn’t the only addiction Daly has gone through; he recently beat an addiction to alcohol. This connection leads us to believe Daly really has a problem, and Barkley does not.

Now, to the most important issue at hand. What sports are appropriate or inappropriate for athletes to gamble on? I have one steadfast rule on this. In no way shape or form should athletes now or ever gamble on their sport. Barkley has responded by saying he never bet on basketball, and I believe he is true to his word. However, if he ever did decide to take sports betting to that next level and gamble on the Kings vs. the Spurs on Friday night, for example, (Spurs -2), it would ruin his credibility as a player and, more importantly, as an analyst, and Barkley is a damn good analyst at that. This is what got Pete Rose banned from the game of baseball for life. We all know what an uphill battle that has been for Rose trying to regain his eligibility to be elected into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Gambling on one’s own sport is a big no-no and will permanently ruin a career and reputation.

All in all, I don’t think it is a big deal when athletes gamble on sports or in casinos. I think we, the media, like to make a big case out of everything and blow everything out of proportion. I would much rather see Mr. Barkley put down a couple of thousand in a poker game than see an ESPN article covering his addiction to cocaine. I believe these athletes need a bridge between professional sports and retirement, and let’s give them this. Isn’t it every person’s right to sit back after a hard day at the office, grab a cold beer and watch the ball game that you just happen to have a little wager on? If you don’t think so, I’ll bet you a dollar it is.