NBA Playoff Betting: Is the Zigzag Theory Valid or Poppycock?

It’s NBA playoff time and one of the oldest betting theories is the so-called "zigzag" angle. Its critics are as emphatic as the supporters. So who is right? Grandmaster sports handicapper Joe Duffy answers.

About this time two years ago, I watched as on one of the fine  betting sites there was a not-so-subtle back and forth of the validity of the so-called zigzag NBA playoff system. 

The method simply says go with the team off of a loss.  A critic came back after the first week or so gleaming over the fact the technique zagged and sagged more than it zigged.  It lost money. Then as the playoffs went on, the proponent got the last laugh while the cynic wrote articles on other topics telling you he is smarter than everyone else. 

Having been in the industry since the 1980s and having been a supporter of computer systems since prominent statistician Dr. Mike Orkin wrote his Pointspread Analyzer software, where does Center of the Handicapping Universe stand? 

We agree with the theory, but less so the etched-in-stone considerations. First of all, let us give a quick refresher of the difference.  A system can be measured objectively because the parameters are concrete.  The zigzag is an example.  Going with a double digit favorite off a single digit loss would be another hypothetical. 

Of course there can be modest variances depending on when and where a database gathers lines, but over any statistically significant period it does not make a huge difference.

A theory is much like a system but does not have objective parameters. Our theory is the better the team is that the zigzag system favors and the bigger the margin the loss was, the more compelling it is to "go with the team off a loss."  

True one could come up with a system to measure our upgrading of the methodology. An example would be going with a team with a winning percentage of .575 or higher off a loss of eight or more.  The problem is we believe a mental sliding scale combining and most importantly, weighing the two factors works best. It allows for a mixing and matching of the two parameters. 

For example, this year as in most years, it would not apply or would only be weighed slightly if we are talking about the bottom three seeds in each conference off a loss. There is a reason they are called "mismatches". 

No. 4 versus five and the next three rounds of the playoffs (barring huge first round upsets), it is weighed much heavier. Remember we told you the mocker grew conspicuously quieter as the postseason went on.  Now you know why. 

It’s one of those theories that almost make too much sense. During the regular season of every sport we remind you of the Golden Rule to not merely go with the "team that needs it more" if said team is fighting just to make the playoffs. 

We call attention to the fact if a team were proficient at winning "must win" games they would not be playing in must-win games late in the year. 

Conversely, a one through five seed, especially as the playoffs go deeper, has shown the ability to rebound from adversity and respond when their backs are to the wall. 

To the handicapper there is a titanic difference between desperate elite teams and equally desperate inferior teams playing in a crucial contest. It’s like the difference between seeing Jennifer Lopez and Rosie O’Donnell in a string bikini.  

Okay, I don’t follow the analogy myself, but the exemplification of the distinction is infallible. From a handicapping standpoint one can’t measure the success of the zigzag if Phoenix coming off a loss is given the same weight (no pun intended Rosie) as Washington or Golden State following a setback. 

Likewise, the margin of the loss is applicable for at least two obvious reasons.  As we have said many times, nothing affects public perception more than the last game they have seen.  It’s not uncommon for a blowout in the previous game to influence an opening line by 2-3 points and more times than not, the closing line by more. 

Plus, no matter how motivated and well-coached a squad is, it defies human nature to approach a game with as much vengeance off a 22-point win as it is for the team off the huge setback. 

So to friends and foes alike of zigzag, a .700 or better team off a loss is not even close to being the same as the below .520 teams zigging. Nor is mindset the same for a team that lost a game that went down to the wire the same as one that got humiliated on national television.

How are Betting Lines Made

Typically there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (college and pro football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing and golf). Each oddmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses into the process.

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

Commonly, people are under the misconception that point spreads represent the oddmakers prediction of how many points the favorite will win the game by. This is not the case – their intent is not to evenly split the ATS result between teams. But rather their goal is to attract equal betting on both team sides. In other words, they want to create a line that is attractive to people betting one way and also people betting the other way (known as dividing the action).

Dividing the action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the better (called juice).

How the Opening Line Is Made

Opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers which is the sent out to all the sportsbooks. There is of course an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. It starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game that is based on their personal approach. This usually includes having current power ratings on each of the teams.

Power ratings are the oddmakers value of each team and they are used as a guide to calculate the preliminary point spreads on upcoming games. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Non game factor examples that require adjustments to the team’s power ratings are key player injuries and key player trades.

When a games power rating pointspread is figured, the oddsmaker will make changes to that line after considering each teams most recent games and previous games played against the opponent. Adjustments are also made after reading each teams local newspaper to get a feel of what the players and coaches are thinking prior to going into the game.

The oddmakers ultimate goal is to equally divide the betting action, therefore public perception and betting patterns are taken into consideration. Example: the public might have heavy betting interest on a popular college football team. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of -6 then an adjustment up to -6.5 or -7 would be made in response to the public’s expected bias.

The final step in the line making process for all oddmakers is taking one last look to determine if it feels right or not. This is where common sense and past experience with games with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A discussion amongst 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

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Sports Gambling Basics

Combine two of man's greatest interests and you've got something called "sports gambling." What could be more ingenious? Imagine a group of men cheering over their favorite team, and almost always, bets are placed along with the racket. Think about it. With every sport there are always certain highlighted games everyone's talking about; something that, according to sports buffs, will "Change the course of history." In order to get some of the action, spectators usually attempt to guess who will win in the upcoming games. This all turns into a friendly little "game" called sports gambling.

It might sound addicting, but sports gambling is really just for fun and a way to bond with your friends. You can bet a little amount of money and still have a good time. Sports gambling makes the outcome of a game more meaningful and the whole duration of the game more thrilling and exciting. Here are some basics to get you started on sports gambling.

To place a bet, all you have to do is go to a sportsbook, which is a place that accepts sports bets. In the United States, there are four states where you can do sports gambling legally, but illegally, you can do it anywhere so long as you can find a bookie AND you are of legal age (over 21). Many of the sports you can bet on are professional and college football and basketball, professional baseball, professional hockey, and horse and dog racing. You can bet on anything that involves sports, really, after all, it is sports gambling. You can bet on the overall combined score of a game, on what round will the opponent be knocked out, and even whether a coin toss in a game lands heads or tails. All you have to do is place your bet depending on the statistical odds (chances of winning/losing).

In sports gambling, bookies rely on statistics to help you decide which team you think will win. There is such a thing called a "spread," which is a point advantage given to a weaker team that is expected to lose
by X number of points. This is the odds maker's way of making even bets possible for a Sports Book. For example, if a person may bet on a team that is expected to lose, and still win the bet so long as the team loses by a given number of points.

You might be asked to bet a few notches higher than the money you may actually win. This is really just the bookie's way of making money.

In sports gambling, there are different kinds of bets. There are straight bets, parlays, teasers, and over/unders. In sports gambling the most common type of bet is the straight bet, where all you have to do is to pick the team which you think will lose or win. Over/under bets are wagers on the combined number of points scored in the game by both teams. Parlays are combined bets on several games. Teasers are similar to parlays, but you can add or subtract points from the spread to make your bets stronger. This is just to show you that sports gambling can be made more interesting and challenging by the bets that you place.

There you go - the basics of sports gambling. Why don't you give it a try, and have a lot of fun in the process. Just remember not to get too carried away and spend your entire 401K plan on a whim. You just might end up regretting it for life.

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